2026 Housing Inventory: Buyers & Sellers Win!
2026 Housing Inventory: Buyers & Sellers Win!
Published: February 13, 2026
Fact-Checking the Rise in Texas Real Estate Inventory for 2026
An Objective Analysis of Current Market Conditions
Introduction
A recent online article claims that housing inventory in Texas is "making a comeback" in 2026 after a prolonged period of scarcity. For home buyers, sellers, and investors, understanding the reality behind such statements is critical for making sound financial decisions. This analysis examines the claim by cross-referencing it with the latest data from authoritative Texas-specific sources to provide a clear, factual, and unbiased picture of the state's housing market.
The Original Claim Summarized
The article asserts that after years of intense buyer competition for a limited number of homes, housing inventory has significantly increased over the past year. The implication is that the market is shifting in a meaningful way, offering more options to prospective buyers.
Verifying the Claim: A Look at Statewide Data
Based on the most recent data, the core claim that inventory has increased is accurate. Statistics from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University confirm a year-over-year rise in both the number of active listings and the Months of Inventory (MOI).
As of January 2026, the statewide MOI stands at approximately 4.1 months. This is a notable increase from the 2.8 months recorded in January 2025. MOI is a key metric that measures how long it would take to sell all currently listed homes at the current pace of sales. An increase in this figure indicates that the supply of homes is growing relative to buyer demand.
However, the term "comeback" requires context. A market is generally considered balanced between buyers and sellers when it has between 6.0 and 6.5 months of inventory. While the current 4.1-month supply is a significant improvement for buyers compared to the sub-2-month levels seen in 2022, Texas as a whole remains in a seller's market. This means sellers still hold a market advantage, although it has diminished from the extreme conditions of previous years.
Beyond the Statewide Average: A Nuanced Reality
The broad, statewide numbers do not tell the full story. The "inventory comeback" is not uniform across Texas. The reality of the market changes dramatically when examined by specific metropolitan areas and price points.
Market Variations in Major Texas Cities
Different economic drivers, population growth rates, and new construction pipelines create distinct market conditions in each major metro area.
Dallas-Fort Worth: The DFW market shows an inventory level of around 3.9 months. The market for homes priced below 400,000 dollars remains highly competitive with a much lower inventory, while the luxury market above 1 million dollars has seen a more substantial increase in supply.
Houston: Houston's market reports a slightly higher inventory at 4.3 months. Its diverse economy and strong new construction sector have contributed to a more stable increase in the number of homes available for sale compared to other metros.
Austin: The Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area has experienced the most significant shift, with inventory climbing to 4.8 months. After a period of unprecedented price appreciation driven by the tech sector, the market is undergoing a correction. This has led to a faster rise in inventory as homes sit on the market longer and price reductions become more common.
San Antonio: San Antonio's market is similar to Houston's, with an inventory of approximately 4.2 months. The market here has seen steady, but less volatile, growth, resulting in a more moderate and consistent increase in available homes.
The Crucial Impact of Price Point
The most significant factor influencing inventory levels is the price of the home. The inventory increase is not evenly distributed across all price ranges.
Entry-Level and Mid-Range Homes: For properties priced at the lower end of the market, typically those sought by first-time home buyers, inventory remains extremely tight. In many areas, there is still less than a 3-month supply of these homes. Intense competition, multiple offers, and bidding above the asking price can still occur in this segment.
Upper-Range and Luxury Homes: The inventory "comeback" is most evident in the higher price brackets. Homes priced above 750,000 dollars have seen a much larger increase in supply. Buyers in this segment have more options, greater negotiating power, and are less likely to face bidding wars.
Factors Driving the Inventory Shift
Several economic factors are contributing to this change in the Texas housing market.
Mortgage Interest Rates: While mortgage rates have moderated from their peaks in late 2024, they remain significantly higher than the historic lows of 2020-2021. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate is fluctuating in the low 6 percent range. This has reduced purchasing power for many buyers, tempering overall demand and allowing inventory to build.
Increase in New Construction: Texas continues to be a national leader in new home construction. As supply chain issues have eased and projects started over the past two years reach completion, a steady stream of new homes is being added to the market, particularly in suburban areas surrounding major cities.
Changing Seller Mindset: The "lock-in effect," where homeowners were hesitant to sell and give up their ultra-low mortgage rates, is beginning to wane. As life events necessitate moves, more existing homes are coming onto the market compared to the previous two years.
Conclusion: Accurate but Oversimplified
The claim that Texas housing inventory is making a comeback in 2026 is partially accurate but lacks the necessary context for consumers to make informed decisions.
Verified Facts: 1. Statewide, the number of homes for sale and the Months of Inventory have increased over the past year. 2. The market is less competitive for buyers than it was in 2022 and 2023.
Critical Nuances: 1. Texas remains in a seller's market, not a balanced or buyer's market. 2. The inventory situation varies drastically by location, with Austin seeing a more significant shift than Dallas-Fort Worth. 3. The "comeback" is primarily in the mid-to-high price ranges, while the market for affordable, entry-level homes remains highly constrained.
For anyone navigating the Texas real estate market, it is essential to look beyond general headlines and analyze hyper-local, price-point-specific data. Relying on verifiable information from trusted sources is the most effective way to understand the true conditions of the market and develop a successful strategy.
Sources:
Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (www.recenter.tamu.edu) Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (www.freddiemac.com/pmms) Official data from regional Multiple Listing Services (MLS) such as Houston Association of Realtors (HAR.com) and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) Texas Real Estate Commission (www.trec.texas.gov) for consumer protection information
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